You don't determine where technology stands by its features. You determine where it stands by its failures. Self-driving software failed to see a 70 foot long, 13 1/2 foot high wall completely across the highway and drove straight into it and killed someone. That's where self-driving technology is today. It's a foolish and ridiculous idea to think you're going to retrofit current vehicles with software that's going to navigate today's current highway system. It's a pipe dream.
That is a great point, and the main reason I think these big companies are going to have a tough time selling this. It was interesting to see how hard Elon Musk and Tesla worked to downplay the failure of their technology when their car ran into a truck. Google has done the same thing.
I am not sure that their plan is to retrofit current vehicles, by the way. I think it will be more of a push to include the tech on new vehicles as they replace the current fleets, kind of like how it's impossible to buy a new car that doesn't have a computer controlling the engine these days. That was unthinkable 30 years ago, but it's reality now, and has been for at least a decade, maybe longer.
Likewise, part of their plan is to change the highway system to make it better accommodate self-driving vehicles. Just six months ago, trial balloons were floated to test the acceptance of the idea of closing major highways to human drivers.
A lot of college professors and research scientists are making a fat living off of grant money and "hope money" donated to research and development for this technolgy, and in fact most of the marketing you're hearing was created to provoke higher levels of R&D funding.
I see drones having a much more immediate and pronounced impact on the world than self-driving cars.
It may be correct that this is mostly research scientists looking for funding. What makes me think it has gotten past that is the money some of the big players have already invested. I understand that companies like Ford and Freightliner and Benz make concept vehicles that never make it to the road, but there has also been a push to get governments to make regulatory changes so they can test them. That's what makes me think this might be different. I hope I'm wrong.
I also agree that drones will have a bigger impact in the short run. That has been interesting to watch as well. I don't see drones threatening too many driving jobs though, except maybe local UPS and FedEx delivery. Even then, that's years away before there will be a big impact, but again, I like to try to see what's coming down the pike.
I also agree that drones will have a bigger impact in the short run
And the long run. Deliveries are what most people think of with drones, but what about transportation? Why would you have people driving around on the crowded, outdated surface infrastructure when you can have drones flying them around in the wide open skies? If they think self-driving automobiles will eliminate a lot of problems, imagine what a centrally-controlled flying vehicle system could do. You order a drone, it flies out to your house, you punch in "Walmart", and sit back and enjoy the five minute flight.
Air taxis. Makes way, way more sense than self-driving vehicles and the technology would be a heck of a lot easier too.
"That is a great point, and the main reason I think these big companies are going to have a tough time selling this. It was interesting to see how hard Elon Musk and Tesla worked to downplay the failure of their technology when their car ran into a truck. Google has done the same thing."
Reminds me off the opening sequence in the original Robocop. Police Robot goes haywire, kills an executive, but still gets mass marketed.
Btw, anyone that thinks truck platooning is something new hasn't actually been paying attention to how most truckers drive on interstates already. Lol
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I also agree that drones will have a bigger impact in the short runAnd the long run. Deliveries are what most people think of with drones, but what about transportation? Why would you have people driving around on the crowded, outdated surface infrastructure when you can have drones flying them around in the wide open skies? If they think self-driving automobiles will eliminate a lot of problems, imagine what a centrally-controlled flying vehicle system could do. You order a drone, it flies out to your house, you punch in "Walmart", and sit back and enjoy the five minute flight.
Air taxis. Makes way, way more sense than self-driving vehicles and the technology would be a heck of a lot easier too.
Deconflicting airspace will most definitely have to be AI enhanced, because if you think flight control is a high pressure/high stake profession now, wait til there are several million aircraft occupying the same airways every minute of the day!
That said, with the ability to separate traffic by type and altitude would make travel MUCH safer than a standard vehicle on the road in traffic. Having that strain taken off the roads would also make self driving trucks much more viable due to the reduced number of risks and variables.
Luckily all of this is something my kids and their kids will have to worry about, I can be happy knowing that Hal 9000 can't secure and tarp a flat bed load, and can be foiled by a loss of GPS signal and road construction =p
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I'm gonna work on my law degree. The lawsuit against the technology company the first time it fails and kills someone will provide a very lavish retirement.