Understanding Winds.

I know when I started, I was looking for a hard and fast rule, a fixed point to objectively know when to shut down for winds. I think most beginning drivers look for that. It's natural to want something fixed and constant in a dynamic ever changing environment.

It felt at the time that old timers would simply offer cryptic advise like an old temple leader: "Young grasshopper, you will know when to shut down when you feel it's time to shut down because a person is the master of their own clenched sphincter" or something akin to that.

And to be fair, it's a fairly subjective choice, we all must choose our comfort level and make our best guess as to what the best practices for safety are. But even in that, there are objective data and model based decisions that can and should be made.

I'm not telling anyone where they should or shouldn't shutdown at, just what my general guidelines are.

To understand the choices I make, it's beneficial to understand the data that leads to the choice.

1. Constant wind speed/gust speed relationship the higher the constant, the more likely the gust speed is to be sustained and increase in speed.

2. Straight line vs cyclonic vs variable winds. Straight line winds are very volatile and can gust significantly higher than anticipated. Variable winds can change instantly in speed, duration, intensity and direction. Cyclonic involve rotational forces, and you can see the direction change over time.

3. Direction of winds. It's no guarantee but the problem areas of known high winds are historically crosswinds to the road surface. Obviously, wind direction has a lot to do with it.

I use Ventuski and Windyapp for model based forecasts. There are several different models for forecasting. For short range I use the NOAA based High Resolution Rapid Refresh. It's 3 km hourly Refresh model. For linger range plans I use GSF and the other as well as NAM. Both apps have it, as well as automatic model choice and comparison mode.

I also use Driveweather to predict wind speeds along my routes at the given times I'll be there, also NOAA based.

In general, with anything under 15k in the box, I don't like to drive above gust speeds of 30 to 35 mph, irrelevant of constant speed. 15k to 20k I'll ride it at 35 to 45 mph. If I absolutely need to.

It's uncomfortable, stressful and while you probably won't tip over, your chances of evading possible accidents decrease and you possibilities of encountering hazards increases. Also the stress causes production of cortisol in your body which causes fat storage and increased fat retention in addition to a host of other health issues.

30 to 35 is well below several studies which show empty 53' vans seem to tip over around the 60 mph gust speed.it allows some headroom. There are of course variables. Many to consider like geographic conditions, cars on the road, road type, weather, etc. I've ran empties in 40 to 50 mph gusts at times, it's was a very unpleasant experience. Again, that's my choice, I don't feel like rolling miles along at a reduced speed stressing and pushing luck to the edge, especially when my company would rather I take their 200k asset and stay safe with it.

Couple of screenshots of windy app and Ventuski and Driveweather

When I drove if the wind was picking up the front of my truck I looked for safe parking...

When I was getting pushed into other lane I was off the road, not safe even with 36,000 in the box...

Some fun times running 10 from Florida to Texas and back